Probability Theory Statistics :: essays research papers

The Collier Encyclopedia’s definition for probability is the concern for events that are not certain and the reasonableness of one expectation over another. These expectations are usually based on some facts about past events or what is known as statistics. Collier describes statistics to be the science of the classification and manipulation of data in order to draw inferences. Inferences here can be read to mean expectations, leading to the conclusion that the two go hand in hand in accomplishing what mankind has tried to accomplish since the beginning of time – predicting the future. It is the notion of science that this is the most accurate way to predict events yet to occur and this has lead to it being the most widely accepted “fortune telling'; tool in the world today. Probability and Statistics most widespread use is in the arena of gambling. Gambling is big all over the world and lots of money is won and lost with their aid. In horse racing especially the statistics of a horse in terms of its physical condition and winning history sway numbers of persons into believing that the mathematical evidence that is derived can actually be a good indicator of a race’s outcome. Usually it is if the odds or probability are great in favor of the desired outcome. However the future is uncertain and races can turn out any of a number of different ways. The field of medicine is another high subscriber to this forecasting technique. Potential diagnoses are frequently made based on a patient’s history or that of his ancestors and the calculated likelihood of him/her acquiring certain conditions. Statistics and probability aid in the decision making process of which test may be required for a given symptom and how a possible outbreak may be detected and contained. Strategies for isolating and dealing with diseases are often made with the aid of statistics on the percentage of a population that may have been infected and the probability of its escalation. The weather forecasters use probability and statistics just as much if not more than any other field on earth. As weather patterns are not fully understood and are dynamic, analysts have to rely heavily on past weather systems and patterns to “guess'; or estimate the possibility of present weather systems to behave in similar manners. If the probability of its behavior, subject to certain factors, in one manner over another is high forecasters make decisions as to how to advise the public.

A Critical Appreciation of Frost’s ‘The Oven Bird’

The Oven Bird is a pessimistic sonnet. The octave seems to describe mid-summer and how it is past its best. Whereas the sestet, which is marked by a rhyming couplet, brings a change, as Frost looks toward what will come in the future, and how to live with a life that is past its best. The bird sings ‘Loud' and predicts the inevitability of mid-summer turning into fall. Gloomy descriptions are used even though it's the middle of summer and everything should be bright and cheerful, ‘he says that leaves are old and that for flowers/ Mid-summer is to spring as one to ten'. The endstop after ‘ten', makes the fact that there are not as many flowers in summer as there are in spring, very definite and quite blunt. Even though winter is along way off, lots of nature is already past its best: The early petal-fall is past, When pear and cherry bloom went down in showers On sunny days a moment overcast The speaker constantly focuses on the shadows, although it is only a ‘moment', so much destruction seems to happen in it. While it's still mid-summer, the bird is already anticipating fall as he says ‘and comes that other fall we name the fall'. Perhaps in this poem Frost is talking about Darwin. The oven bird could be used to represent Darwin. Frost says ‘there is a singer everyone has heard'. Around the time Frost was writing, Darwin was teaching his theory, he was famous and everyone had heard of him. By placing ‘loud' at the beginning of the line and putting a comma after it, Frost focuses on this word, emphasising that Darwin is shouting and telling everyone about his theory. Frost then goes onto say the bird ‘makes the solid tree trunks sound again'. This could possibly be Darwin questioning all and bringing a new uncertainty to life. If we continue with the Darwin idea, perhaps when Frost refers to ‘that other fall we name the fall', he is referring to Adam and Eve and the fall of mankind. This is then followed by the bird saying ‘the highway dust is overall'. Read also Critical appreciation of the poem â€Å"Old Ladies’ Home†. The highway might represent mans progress and new scientific knowledge and how this now covers everything, nature and religion. Frost says, ‘the bird would cease and be as other birds/ but that he knows in singing not to sing'. I think this could mean that the bird is not as exuberant as other birds in spring, but he sings in mid-summer and knows the future isn't necessarily something to look forward to. With Darwin's new theory, the old certainty has been taken away and replaced by something new and radical that makes the future unsettling. The poem finishes on an unsure note as Frost says, ‘The question that he frames in all but words/ is what to make of a diminished thing'. Frost might be saying that, although life is past its best, like summer, how can we make the most of it? This is very characteristic of Frost's poetry, with Frost leaving the reader to make their own interpretation and decide for themselves. Although the tone of the last two lines is elegiac and ‘diminished thing' sounds very negative, Frost also asks ‘what to make' of it and this sounds more positive as though this is just a new, exciting challenge to face. The Oven Bird is also similar to Frost's other poetry because he uses nature to put across an idea. The Oven Bird is an unusual sonnet, Frost uses an old, accepted poetry style to express these new and bold ideas, the unconventional rhyme scheme also helps to emphasise these new ideas. This is another quality of Frost, to take a certain style of poetry and make it his own.

A Comparison of 1929s Stock Market Crash and Todays...

Introduction The most recent financial crisis was an all encompassing meltdown that affected the entire global economy. It is nearly impossible to quantify the distress this crisis put on the American economy and the world has yet to see the long term damage. After any disaster, people are eager to point fingers. This financial meltdown was no different, as critics were quick to blame anything and anyone from Wall Street to fair value accounting. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what caused the most recent financial crisis, and even time may not tell. Economists are still trying to figure out why the stock market crashed in 1929, and Ben Bernanke recently stated â€Å"to understand the Great Depression is the Holy Grail of macroeconomics.†Ã¢â‚¬ ¦show more content†¦These ratings were trusted by investors and fueled the sale of additional CDOs. Credit rating agencies have a fiduciary duty to the public to evaluate debt instruments without bias and with due diligence. A conflict of interest arises however because they earn their revenues from the issuers whose financial instruments they rate. The issuers have the ability to pick and choose their credit rating agencies, most likely based on their willingness to give a favorable credit rating. In other words, it’s in the best interest of the credit rating agency to give favorable ratings in order to receive revenue. With an increase in bonds, and mortgages in 1929 and 2007 respectively, there was more profit to be made and credit rating agencies wanted their cut. Risky Credit Practices With increased capital and soaring investor confidence, both eras saw an increase in lending on credit. In 1929, â€Å"buying on margin† became very popular. Average investors wanted to get their share of the profits being made in the stock market and would find a stock broker to lend them money to increase their ownership. Sometimes brokers would require 50% down payment by investors and riskier ones only required 25%. Investors would put up the margin capital and the broker would put up the remainder (Bierman). Brokers would then collect a fee on borrowed money. There was no regulation on margin buying, so setting margins was left to theShow MoreRelatedThe Global Financial Crisis on India Essay2493 Words   |  10 Pagesthink India remained relatively insulated from the financial crises? The contagion is truly global in a globalized world. How can the high priests of globalization in India expect to insulate the country from this all-pervasive crisis? - By S. Shivaraman It is not right to say that a country is insulated from financial crisis in today’s globalized world. In some way or the other thereRead MoreElements of The Global Economy Essay2119 Words   |  9 Pagesgrowing at an increasing rate due to factors such as high oil prices, imports growing slightly faster than exports, and the low U.S. savings. We should be concerned over the long run because these trade deficits are overwhelmingly large in comparison to U.S. GDP and to the small U.S. export base. This concern in increasingly large deficits implies an even greater increase in the U.S. net external indebtedness and external balance. U.S. has sometimes relied on dollar depreciation to reduceRead MoreEurope Economic Crisis55278 Words   |  222 PagesISSN 0379-0991 Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses EUROPEAN ECONOMY 7|2009 EUROPEAN COMMISSION The European Economy series contains important reports and communications from the Commission to the Council and the Parliament on the economic situation and developments, such as the Economic forecasts, the annual EU economy review and the Public ï ¬ nances in EMU report. Subscription terms are shown on the back cover and details on how to obtain the list of sales agentsRead MoreThe Generational Gap Of A Generation Diverse Workforce Essay2208 Words   |  9 PagesToday’s workforce has expanded to four separate generations. With such a large generational gap it is imperative to have effective intergenerational communication within organizations. This paper will cover an overview of each generation, similarities and difference, and what contributes to effect communication among the generations. There is much scholarly research on generational communication but it becomes unclear when traits and attributions outside of particular generations skew or seeminglyRead MoreMahfuz7 742 Words   |  31 Pagessecond, from the late 1940s until about 1980, was managerialism’s era of good feelings, its apogee of self-confidence and widespread public support. The third and ongoing era has been marked by a kind of retreat—into specialization, servitude to market forces, and declining moral ambitions. But it has also been an era of global triumph, measured by agreement on certain key ideas, steadily improving productivity, the worldwide march of the MBA degree, and a general elevation of expectations about Read MoreToyota Company Analysis9662 Words   |  39 Pages 1.1. Vision and Mission 3 1.2. Company history 6 2. Industry description 10 2.1. The Automotive Industry 10 2.2. Size 11 2.3. Porters Five Forces 11 2.4. Growth Potential 15 2.5. Major Competitors and Market share 17 2.6. Weighted Competitive Strength Analysis Appendix to Section 2 2.7. Auto Industry Group Map Appendix to Section 2 3. Company Description 18 3.1. Marketing 18 3.2. Research and Development 20 3.3. Production andRead MoreDamodaran Book on Investment Valuation, 2nd Edition398423 Words   |  1594 Pageslet me know? It would help me ensure that the typos do not find their way into the final version. Chapter 1: Introduction to Valuation Chapter 2: Approaches to Valuation Chapter 3: Understanding Financial Statements Chapter 4: The Basics of Risk Chapter 5: Option Pricing Theory and Models Chapter 6: Market Efficiency: Theory and Models Chapter 7: Riskless Rates and Risk Premiums Chapter 8: Estimating Risk Parameters and Costs of Financing Chapter 9: Measuring Earnings Chapter 10: From Earnings toRead MoreCorporation (Fisch) Outline Penn Law Essay62808 Words   |  252 Pages ââ€" ª Addresses the creation of economic wealth through the facilitation of voluntary, ongoing collective action ââ€" ª Flexible- expectation that market discipline will weed out what is not working ââ€" ª Principle aim- reduce agency costs of all sorts o Securities Law: Regulates capital markets that corporations use to obtain funding o Firm: A form of business relation that has a temporal dimension, a social identity, and a separate pool of dedicatedRead MoreOne Significant Change That Has Occurred in the World Between 1900 and 2005. Explain the Impact This Change Has Made on Our Lives and Why It Is an Important Change.163893 Words   |  656 Pagesspecialize in one or the other of what have been viewed as very different wars, Morrow not only compares the two conflicts in detail, but also approaches each war and its linkages from a thoroughly global perspective. This combination of rigorous comparison and breadth allows him to repeatedly challenge longestablished myths, provide alternatives to narrowly conceived interpretations, and offer quite an original take on the most extensively covered conflicts in human history and the decades of unprecedentedRead MoreDeveloping Management Skills404131 Words   |  1617 Pagesbuilt-in pretests and posttests, focus on what you need to learn and to review in order to succeed. Visit www.mymanagementlab.com to learn more. DEVELOPING MANAGEMENT SKILLS EIGHTH EDITION David A. Whetten BRIGHAM YOUNG UNIVERSITY Kim S. Cameron UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN Prentice Hall Boston Columbus Indianapolis New York San Francisco Upper Saddle River Amsterdam Cape Town Dubai London Madrid Milan Munich Paris Montreal Toronto Delhi Mexico City Sao Paulo Sydney Hong Kong Seoul Singapore